The September 2021 Cost of Living Survey took place in very different circumstances than six months or one year ago. As many countries around the world saw a return to international travel and rising demand, supply chain problems have been exacerbated and pushed up prices around the world.
Some countries that were hit by the halt in travel have seen rebounds in their currencies, while those reliant on oil or other commodities have also continued to bounce back. Consumers across the world have been hit by rising prices for fuel in particular, but also for electrical goods that use semiconductors which have been in short supply. This rise in inflation in the last 12 months has been relatively broad-based so its impact on indices will be limited with only those most affected seeing significant index changes.
Use the interactive map below to find out more about how various factors affected indices in the countries where you have assignees. Simply choose a home location from the dropdown and learn more about how cost of living indices changed in the six months to September 2021. The exchange rate changes, inflation and index change indicator will vary depending on the home location selected and are based on ECA's default standard home-based index and may change if different assumptions are used.
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Post-survey developments
The rise of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 has sent shudders across markets around the world. While much is still unclear, it appears that a more contagious virus is now sweeping the globe, affecting many economies as countries limit travel and enact stricter social distancing restrictions. These changes could affect demand if they continue and will also hit prices and exchange rates around the world in the coming months. Sign up to ECA's blog alerts to make sure you stay up to date with the latest exchange rate and inflation news.
However, some of the changes impacting assignees are as much man-made as caused by the pandemic. For example, in a repeat of the situation six months ago, President Erdogan of Turkey has sacked yet another governor of the Turkish central bank, causing a predictable plunge in the value of the lira which will likely push up inflation even further. Even in countries with more orthodox monetary policy, inflation is rising. While inflation is likely to die down in the coming year, assignees may be hearing a lot more about rising prices in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Turkey, Lebanon and Zimbabwe have seen their currencies lose more than 10% of their value against the euro since the September 2021 survey and this will mean lower indices if these rates are used with the September survey data, but the depreciation is also likely to fuel inflation in these countries.
In Angola, the kwanza has strengthened significantly against the euro in recent months, which would raise indices if used with the September 2021 survey data and may help to lower inflation there in the medium term as import costs are reduced.
ECA's interim surveys
We are currently undertaking interim surveys for the following countries due to high inflation expectations: Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Lebanon, South Sudan, Sudan, Surinam, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The results will be available in January 2022.
FIND OUT MORE
If you require any assistance or would like additional information or data on the 493 locations included in our survey, or need advice regarding currency fluctuations, please get in touch.
Please contact us to speak to a member of our team directly.