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Inflation round-up

Over the past 15 months or so, our regular table showing countries with double-digit inflation has grown ever larger... until now. Eight countries left the list (see below), having brought official annual inflation rates below ten percent, while only five (Barbados, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Iceland and South Sudan) joined. A deficit of three is a minor change, admittedly, given there are 68 countries in the table, but hopefully it is a significant indicator of lower global inflation ahead. Analysts remain split (aren't they always?) but perhaps now a majority appears to think indices will continue to fall. Indeed, US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, believes low inflation is the bigger long-term threat to the world economy, rather than high.

Obviously, many countries continue to struggle with price pressures. A notable milestone was passed in Argentina, where inflation topped 100% in February for the first time in 32 years. While the war in Ukraine has contributed considerably, by pushing energy and food costs up particularly, the government and central bank must share the blame because of a money-printing spree to meet their obligations, which inevitably raises inflation. Policies to boost investment, GDP growth and tax revenues would not only reduce the need for extra cash, but would help to bring down inflation themselves. There are few signs of such measures coming any time soon.

In contrast, Zimbabwe's inflation fell below 100% in February for the first time since March last year. A slightly more stable currency, following reforms has helped, but the main driver behind the better figures has been the increasing dollarisation of the economy. This has helped to stabilise prices and has allowed the central bank to cut interest rates, thereby boosting economic growth.

High-inflation countries (annual CPI 10%+)

Country CPI % Data month Trend IMF 2023 forecast %
Angola 11.5 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 11.8
Argentina 102.5 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 76.1
Austria 10.9 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 5.1
Azerbaijan 14.1 Feb-23 ► Steady 10.8
Barbados 12.3 Dec-22 ▲ Rising 8.2
Belarus 11.7 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 13.1
Bosnia 14.1 Jan-23 ▼ Falling 4.5
Bulgaria 16.0 Feb-23 ► Steady 5.2
Burundi 28.0 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 8.5
Cape Verde 15.5 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 3.5
Central African Rep 10.4 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 6.3
Chile 11.9 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 8.7
Colombia 13.3 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 7.1
Comoros 20.9 Dec-22 ▲ Rising 8.4
Congo DR 16.3 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 9.8
Croatia 12.0 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 5.5
Cuba 42.1 Jan-23 ▲ Rising n/a
Czech Republic 16.7 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 8.6
Egypt 31.9 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 12.0
Estonia 17.6 Feb-23 ► Steady 9.5
Ethiopia 32.0 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 28.6
Faroe Islands 10.1 Dec-22 ▲ Rising n/a
Gambia 13.6 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 11.1
Ghana 52.8 Feb-23 ► Steady 20.9
Haiti 49.3 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 21.2
Hungary 25.4 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 13.3
Iceland 10.2 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 6.7
Iran 53.4 Feb-23 ► Steady 40.0
Kazakhstan 21.3 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 11.3
Kosovo 10.5 Feb-23 ► Steady 5.0
Kyrgyzstan 16.2 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 12.4
Laos 41.3 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 9.0
Latvia 20.3 Feb-23 ► Steady 8.0
Lebanon 123.5 Jan-23 ▼ Falling n/a
Lithuania 18.7 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 8.4
Madagascar 11.4 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 8.0
Malawi 26.7 Feb-23 ► Steady 16.5
Mauritius 11.0 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 6.1
Moldova 25.9 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 13.8
Mongolia 12.2 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 12.2
Montenegro 15.1 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 9.2
Mozambique 10.3 Feb-23 ► Steady 8.6
Myanmar 19.6 Jul-22 ▲ Rising 13.3
Nicaragua 11.1 Feb-23 ► Steady 7.0
Nigeria 21.9 Feb-23 ► Steady 17.3
North Macedonia 16.7 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 4.5
Pakistan 31.5 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 19.9
Poland 18.4 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 14.3
Romania 15.5 Feb-23 ► Steady 11.0
Russia 11.0 Feb-23 ► Steady 5.0
Rwanda 30.3 Feb-23 ► Steady 8.0
Senegal 10.6 Jan-23 ▼ Falling 3.1
Serbia 16.1 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 8.3
Sierra Leone 38.5 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 26.8
Slovakia 15.4 Feb-23 ► Steady 10.1
South Sudan 31.3 Feb-23 ▲ Rising 21.7
Sri Lanka 50.6 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 29.5
Sudan 63.3 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 76.9
Surinam 55.5 Jan-23 ▲ Rising 27.2
Sweden 12.0 Feb-23 ► Steady 8.4
Tunisia 10.4 Feb-23 ► Steady n/a
Turkey 55.2 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 51.2
Turkmenistan 17.5 Dec-22 ▲ Rising 10.5
Ukraine 24.9 Feb-23 ► Steady n/a
United Kingdom 10.1 Jan-23 ► Steady 9.0
Uzbekistan 12.2 Feb-23 ► Steady 10.8
Venezuela 155.8 Oct-22 ► Steady 195.0
Zimbabwe 92.3 Feb-23 ▼ Falling 204.6

Finally, it appears increasingly likely that Qatar will at last join other Gulf Cooperation Council states in introducing 5% sales tax (VAT), sometime in the summer of 2023.

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