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Inflation round-up

For the first time in many months, our high-inflation table is shorter - just! - than it was the last time, with more countries seeing official inflation drop back below 10% than there were joiners. Furthermore, many countries remaining on the list saw their inflation trends change from rising to falling or steady.

If these are signs that global inflation has at last peaked, Western Europe, at least, has failed to notice - seven of the eight newcomers to the table were from that region: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal and the United Kingdom all saw their consumer price index changes soar into double figures, joining numerous other European states already witnessing those levels of price rises. However, even in Europe, there are indications that the worst might be over. The biggest factors driving European inflation in recent months have been energy, fuel and food costs, but all three have seen prices falling of late, although they remain volatile. Interestingly, services prices have barely budged in the last three months in the Eurozone.

With inflation so high, central banks such as the European Central Bank and Bank of England may need to accelerate their current run of interest-rate hikes. That would be likely to produce rebounds in the euro and pound over the next few months, at least in relation to the US dollar - inflation has begun to fall in the United States. The combination of stronger currency and still-high inflation could mean significant cost-of-living uplifts are needed to protect expatriate staff spending power in Europe come ECA's March 2023 survey. If so, they would reverse largely negative cost-of-living adjustment trends in the September 2022 survey, which is being published as I write.

As always, we will keep you posted in the blog, but if you need assistance with these or any other aspects of managing your international assignees, do please get in touch.

High-inflation countries (annual CPI 10%+)

Country CPI % Data month Trend IMF 2023 forecast %
Angola 16.7 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 11.8
Argentina 88.0 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 76.1
Austria 11.0 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 5.1
Azerbaijan 13.7 Oct-22 ► Steady 10.8
Belarus 15.2 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 13.1
Belgium 12.3 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 4.9
Bosnia 18.2 Sep-22 ▲ Rising 4.5
Botswana 13.1 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 5.8
Bulgaria 17.6 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 5.2
Burkina Faso 16.5 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 1.5
Burundi 22.1 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 8.5
Cayman Islands 12.1 Jun-22 ▲ Rising n/a
Chile 12.8 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 8.7
Colombia 12.2 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 7.1
Comoros 15.9 Sep-22 ▼ Falling 8.4
Croatia 13.2 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 5.5
Cuba 37.2 Sep-22 ▲ Rising n/a
Czech Republic 15.1 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 8.6
Denmark 10.1 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 3.8
Egypt 16.2 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 12.0
Estonia 22.5 Oct-22 ► Steady 9.5
Ethiopia 31.7 Oct-22 ► Steady 28.6
Gambia 13.3 Sep-22 ▲ Rising 11.1
Georgia 10.6 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 6.0
Germany 10.4 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 7.2
Ghana 40.4 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 20.9
Guinea 12.4 Jul-22 ► Steady 12.2
Haiti 30.5 Jul-22 ▲ Rising 21.2
Honduras 10.2 Oct-22 ► Steady 8.5
Hungary 21.1 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 13.3
Iran 52.2 Aug-22 ► Steady 40.0
Italy 11.8 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 5.2
Kazakhstan 18.8 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 11.3
Kosovo 12.7 Sep-22 ▼ Falling 5.0
Kyrgyzstan 15.4 Oct-22 ► Steady 12.4
Laos 36.8 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 9.0
Latvia 21.8 Oct-22 ► Steady 8.0
Lebanon 158.5 Oct-22 ▼ Falling n/a
Lithuania 23.6 Oct-22 ► Steady 8.4
Malawi 26.7 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 16.5
Mali 11.3 Sep-22 ▼ Falling 3.0
Mauritania 11.3 Sep-22 ▲ Rising 7.8
Mauritius 11.9 Oct-22 ► Steady 6.1
Moldova 34.2 Sep-22 ► Steady 13.8
Mongolia 14.5 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 12.2
Montenegro 16.8 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 9.2
Mozambique 11.8 Sep-22 ▼ Falling 8.6
Myanmar 19.4 Jun-22 ▲ Rising 13.3
Netherlands 14.3 Oct-22 ► Steady 8.0
Nicaragua 12.2 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 7.0
Nigeria 21.6 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 17.3
North Macedonia 19.8 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 4.5
Pakistan 26.6 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 19.9
Poland 17.9 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 14.3
Portugal 10.1 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 4.7
Romania 15.3 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 11.0
Russia 12.6 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 5.0
Rwanda 17.6 Sep-22 ▼ Falling 8.0
Samoa 15.3 Sep-22 ▲ Rising 6.3
Senegal 13.0 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 3.1
Serbia 15.0 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 8.3
Sierra Leone 29.1 Sep-22 ► Steady 26.8
Slovakia 14.9 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 10.1
Sri Lanka 73.7 Sep-22 ▲ Rising 29.5
Sudan 102.6 Oct-22 ▼ Falling 76.9
Surinam 41.6 Oct-22 ► Steady 27.2
Sweden 10.9 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 8.4
Tonga 14.1 Sep-22 ▲ Rising 8.9
Turkey 85.5 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 51.2
Turkmenistan 17.5 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 10.5
Uganda 10.7 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 6.4
Ukraine 26.6 Oct-22 ▲ Rising n/a
United Kingdom 11.1 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 9.0
Uzbekistan 12.2 Oct-22 ► Steady 10.8
Venezuela 155.8 Oct-22 ▲ Rising 195.0
Zimbabwe 268.8 Oct-22 ► Steady 204.6
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